Which has a bigger effect on history: the plans of the powerful or their mistakes? 2000words.

While plans can have significant impacts, it is often the mistakes of the powerful that yield unforeseen and
far-reaching consequences, causing them to have a greater effect on History. History isrife with examples
of leaders who made critical errorsthat altered the course of events. Mistakes expose vulnerabilities,
promptsocietal introspection, and challenge established powerstructures, ultimately reshaping the
trajectory of history.
The road to WWII was an amalgamation of decisions made by the global powers of the time, now classified
as mistakes: the unintended consequences of the Treaty of Versailles, the failures of The League Of Nations,
the overlooking because of appeasement, the neglect towardsthe USSR and the trust bestowed upon
Hitler. The end of WW1 in 1918 saw four empires collapse, countries abolish and form, boundariesredrawn,
international organizations establish, and many ideologiestake hold in people’s minds.
1 Using these two
decades(1919 – 1939) that led to WWII as a case study, I will be analysing how mistakes have a greater
effect on History.
Why mistakes have a greater effect on History
The Treaty Of Versailles, 1919
It isimportant to note that the consideration of the Treaty as a mistake issubject to hindsight, the ability to
judge its consequencesin the present. Global powersin the past, who took calculated risks, were
completely blindsided asto whether their actions would be a plan or a mistake.
The Treaty was negotiated in Paris by representatives of the victorious Allied nations.
2
It forced Germany to
give up territory and its overseas coloniesto countrieslike Belgium, Czechoslovakia and France.
2 This
added to their physical hardships ofstarvation and lack of electricity. Additionally, it had to reduce both its
armed forces and military presence.
2 This was a dent in the pride of most Germans who considered their
military their biggeststrength; the forces were also not enough to protect Germany. Most importantly, the
‘War Guilt Clause’ of the Treaty placed all blame for inciting the war on Germany and forced it to pay
several billion in reparationsto the Allied nations.
2 For the Germans, not only did thisignite a period of
economic downfall, but was also simply unacceptable to accept all blame. British economist John Maynard
Keynes believed that the high reparations presented severe risksto the entire European economy.
2
In his
memoir, POTUS Herbert Hoover blamed reparationsfor causing the Great Depression.
2
“You could argue that it made Europe a lessstable place,” says Michael Neiberg, professor of history at U.S.
Army War College and author of The Treaty of Versailles: A Concise History (2017).
3 Consequentially, the
Treaty became a symbol of German hatred towardsthe West, and extremist partieslike Hitler’s Nazis
exploited thisto win over public support and establish their regime. By blaming the Treaty for their
hardships, the Nazis drove a system ofsocial and economic manipulation and derived meansto use such
violence globally.
4
The Policy Of Isolation, 1920
The Roaring Twentiessignified an American metamorphosisto isolationism, removing themselvesfrom
any international alliances and following their own policiesin self-interest. This waslargely driven by the
public feelings of the time, those of avoiding war and casualties, and those of hatred for the imperialist
regime and European treaties.
On January 8, 1918, when POTUS Woodrow Wilson, to inspire the Allies’ will to a swift victory, presented
his14-point-programme, he proposed in hislast point, “a general association of nations(that) must be
formed underspecific covenantsfor the purpose of affording mutual guarantees of political independence
and territorial integrity to great and smallstates alike.”
5The resultant ‘League of Nations’ held under its
purview global membership, disarmament, conflict-resolution, peace management, and all-around
redevelopment. However, his American crusade for it had been unsuccessful. During the Presidential
Elections of 1920, the Republican candidate Warren Harding campaigned for a ‘return to normalcy,’ calling
for “sustainment in triumphant nationality.”
6 He won by a landslide victory, leaving the American chair at
the League empty.
7,8
The absence of America in the League caused impacts greater than the sum of it. Without the USA, UK and
France were the most influential countriesin the League. However, debilitated by WWI, neither was quite
the world power they had once been. More importantly, neither retained the resources, like sanctions, to
replenish the gap left by the USA, adding to the structural weaknesses of the League.
9 Furthermore, they
were propelled by prioritiesseparate from the League’s mission. British politicians deemed the importance
of rebuilding British trade and overseeing the Imperial empire. France’s primary apprehension wasthat
without an army of its own, the League wastoo vulnerable to protect France from a German attack. This
endangered them to circumvent the League if it meant bolstering their position, further driving French and
British disagreements over impertinent border issuessuch as Vilna and Corfu. The ripple effects of these
variances were more pronounced when the League suffered through the Manchurian Crisis, the Abyssinian
Crisis, and the failure of the disarmament conference in the 1930s.
10 These mistakes had dire consequences
for world peace,signalling to the world that the League waslosing power, and the rule-breakers were
triumphing.
The Policy Of Appeasement, 1930
Additionally, the American dearth from the League was paramount in the Policy of Appeasement. Hitler
was appointed asthe German Chancellor in January 1933. Harnessing his powers, he began the overturning
of the Treaty Of Versailles. To evade possibilities of war, the Allies appeased him in continuance—a
catastrophic choice in retrospect.
12
In 1933, it authorized Hitler to rearm.
10,13
In 1935, overlooking French
disapproval, Britain allowed Hitler to match their navy by 35%. In 1936, appeasement allowed the
remilitarisation of the Rhineland, even without an adequately trained German army lacking integral air
support.
10,13 Many in Britain were already sympathetic towards Germany, and on the cusp of elections,
assuming responsibility for another German war was unlikely in France. Thisfostered Hitler to gamble
more thereafter. Similarly, Britain and France did not intercede during the German Anschluss with
Austria.
10,13
However, the effects were most blatant when Hitler threatened war over the Sudetenland region of
Czechoslovakia, where numerous displaced Germansresided, in 1938.
11 Without consulting
Czechoslovakia or USSR, Britain, France and Italy voted to give Sudetenland to Hitler under the Munich
Agreement on 29th September.
11 However, the succeeding German takeover of Czechoslovakia couldn’t be
justified, because it was a clear invasion. Such continued appeasement incited Hitler’s carefree attitude at
the time, thereupon ushering him to invade Poland despite continued Allied warnings, aided by the
Nazi-Soviet Pact.
12
In August 1938, Germany and USSR signed the Nazi-Soviet Pact, forsaking an armed attack on one
another.
14 Privately, they acquiesced to dividing Poland between them.
14 Operating after hissuccessesin
Czechoslovakia, the Pact empowered Hitler to confound resistance from the eastern USSR and annexe.
14
However, Britain and France were explicit about declaring another World War if Germany acted in a way of
compromising Poland. In his addressto the House of Commons on 1st September 1939, British Prime
Minister Neville Chamberlain said, “The time has come when action rather than speech isrequired.”
15 The
signing of the Pactsubsequently led to a German invasion of Poland and the declaration of WWII.
13 A war,
which documented the historical occurrence of the use of nuclear weaponry, and completely recast the
path of history.
Thus, the appeasement from Britain and France resulted in war in 1939.
13
How do we separate plans and mistakes?
Often it is hard to distinguish between plans and mistakes.
First, plans and mistakes have a tendency to intersect with one another. The Nazi-Soviet pact, although
conferred as a plan, had disastrous consequencesleading to WWII. By this perception, it can be viewed as a
mistake. Similarly, the policies of Isolation and Appeasement commenced aslogical plans devised by the
world powers, that in their view, would bring peace. Although they had negative consequences, making
them a mistake, they also identify as plans of the powerful.
Second, it is noteworthy to regard that even the greatest of planslead to mistakes, and even the strongest of
mistakeslead to a plan. The Allies originally made the Treaty of Versailles a plan to condemn Germany’s
contribution to WWI. However, the Treaty caused economic hardshipsin Germany, along with the loss of
land, population, and important raw materials. It became an emblem of German hatred and was used by
The Nazisto rise to power. Thus, the Treaty, which started out as a plan, ultimately led to mistakes.
Similarly, when Hitler tried to invade Austria in 1934, he wasstopped by Mussolini; the flapping of the
wing. This mistake led him to make Italy a German ally. Ultimately, they, along with Japan, created the Axis
Alliance, a united plan to defeat the Western and the Communist front; the resultant typhoon. Thus,
Hitler’sfailure, which started out as a mistake, led to the creation of a plan.
Third, the categorization largely depends on the perspective of the Historian. As E.H. Carr expressesin his
renowned novella ‘What is History?’, History never has a singletruth. Everyone who views History is
entitled to their own truth, for a historian growing up in Nazi Germany will not have the same truth as a
Historian growing up in isolationist America. This empowers Historians with their own view of whether a
plan was more impactful, or a mistake.
Psychology in History
The extent to which mistakes or plansimpact history, depends on one whether humanslearn from their
failures orsuccesses. Scientists have long known that mistakes are conducive to learning
16 Activity in the
brain increasesimmediately aftersensing a mistake, forcing conscious consideration before we carry out
the same action again.
16
However, through a historical perspective, which events can be considered successes, and which can be
considered failures? The League as a plan, had both successes and failures. The Nazi-Soviet Pact was
successful for the USSR in a way that it allowed them time to prepare for a German invasion, effectively
saving millions of Soviet lives during the war. The Pact was a failure for Britain in the way that it
encouraged another German invasion. The Isolationist Policy was a successfor America in a way that
allowed them to economically grow, but it was a failure for Britain and France in a way that weakened their
authority and guidance. The Policy of Appeasement was a successfor the Germansin a way that it allowed
them to follow through with Lebensraum and the Anti-Comintern mission, but ended up being a failure for
Britain which ultimately had to go to war.
Conclusion
Both the plans of the powerful and their mistakes can have a significant effect on history, and often it can
be difficult to determine which has a greater impact. Thisis because of limitationssuch as distinguishing
between plans and mistakes and determining the impact through categorisation assuccesses or failures.
Historically, mistakestend to be more influential. A wrong decision by a leader or a group of
decision-makers can lead to military defeats, economic downturns, orsocial unrest. In some cases, even
lead to the downfall of a powerful individual or group, asseen before in many political and business
scandals. These characteristics were prevalent during the build-up to WWII, where mistakesled to
populationslosing the right to self-determination or democracy, mass extremism, death, destruction and
another world war.
Ultimately, plans may be successful or unsuccessful, mistakes may have unforeseen consequences or lead
to unexpected opportunities. The impact of history is often shaped by a complex interplay of factorsthat
are difficult to disentangle. Exploring this also prompts, how might a deeper understanding of this
interplay inform our perspectives on the present and future. Because plans and problems of the past have
inevitably affected the present and the trendsthey present further influence the future.
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